Can the price of PVC paste resin continue to remain firm due to the reduction of maintenance enterprises?

At present, the PVC market price has bottomed out and rebounded, with a price increase of 1200 yuan/ton in two months. The main reason is that supply pressure has decreased, which has a significant impact on price support. Demand has not yet fully recovered. In addition, plasticizer prices have risen rapidly, and downstream acceptance is limited. It is expected that price consolidation will be the main trend in the near future.

Recently, PVC paste resin enterprises have gradually resumed production, and Shandong Langhui and Shenyang Chemical have started to increase their production. In addition, with the current market price recovery, the cost pressure of Jining Zhongyin has weakened, and production has begun to resume. Under such pressure, can market prices still rise at high levels?

In terms of construction, it can be seen from the table that except for enterprises that have been parked for a long time, only Ningbo Formosa Plastics has recently stopped for maintenance, and production will resume over the weekend. Shandong Langhui started construction last weekend and increased to 70%, with full production expected on the 20th; Shenyang Chemical is producing at full capacity this week.

In terms of inventory, there has been a significant rebound in market prices recently, with a strong trading atmosphere. Shenyang Chemical is currently in a negative inventory state, Shandong Langhui has a backlog of 3000-4000 tons, and Tangshan Sanyou has a pre-sale volume of half a month. Currently, various enterprises have almost no inventory pressure, and the pre-sale situation is good.

In terms of cost, vinyl chloride and EDC monomers in Asia have maintained a stable trend this week. The rise in ethylene prices has led to an increase in EDC costs, while the upcoming maintenance of downstream PVC factories has reduced the demand for vinyl chloride monomer purchases. The market still believes that with the rise in PVC prices, there may still be room for vinyl chloride price increases. This week, mainstream vinyl chloride enterprises in East China increased their prices by 100 yuan/ton, and they will accept delivery at 5500-5600 yuan/ton. The mainstream trade quotation in the Wuhai region is 3100 yuan/ton, and production enterprises are producing goods smoothly. The sales of supporting calcium carbide in the Wuhai region are expected to increase recently, and the market supply is tight. The mainstream ex factory trade price in the Shizuishan region is between 3100-3150 yuan/ton, and production enterprises have smooth shipments, low inventory, and tight supply of goods. The price in Ulanqab region is stable, and the supply has recently increased. The quotation is 3170 yuan/ton, and the shipment is smooth.

Overall, the current PVC market price has bottomed out and rebounded, with a price increase of 1200 yuan/ton in two months. The main reason is that the supply pressure has decreased, which has a significant impact on price support. Demand has not yet fully recovered, coupled with the rapid increase in plasticizer prices and limited downstream acceptance. It is expected that the price will be mainly consolidated horizontally in the near future.

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