Cost supported DOTP market prices are still at a high level within the year

Introduction: Since December, the DOTP market price has once again hit the highest point of the year, and cost support is the main reason for the high consolidation of DOTP prices. At present, both the DOTP market and the octanol market prices are at relatively high levels within the year. The main raw material in the octanol market has been operating at over 12000 yuan/ton for three periods of time this year.

The first period is from August 23rd to September 13th, with a duration of about 20 days. The highest point reached 12800 yuan/ton at the end of August, and continued for 4 days before falling. During this period, the market price of Shandong DOTP reached a high point of around 12000 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of -300 to 69 yuan/ton, and was mostly in a loss making state.

The second period is from September 29th to October 13th before and after the National Day holiday, lasting for about 14 days. The highest point reached 12600 yuan/ton on October 7th and then fell back. During this period, the market price of DOTP reached a high point of around 11950 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of -65 to 114 yuan/ton. During this period, enterprises mainly focused on profitability.

We are currently in the third period of time, starting on December 4th and reaching a new high of 13000 yuan/ton on December 5th. During this period, the market price of DOTP in Shandong reached a high point of around 11900 yuan/ton. Since around December 6th, the DOTP market has started a loss making model, and as of now, the theoretical loss of Shandong DOTP is about 104 yuan/ton.

High starting point of plasticizers leads to high octanol prices running high

From the three instances of high prices for plasticizers and octanol, it can be seen that each price increase basically started from the high price of plasticizers or the decrease in octanol production. In the early stage, the production of plasticizers was at a high level, and the enthusiasm for purchasing octanol raw materials was high, which led to a strong increase in octanol prices; In the middle and later stages, as the price of octanol rose to a high level, plasticizer factories gradually began to lose money. After the high price followed weakly, the operating load decreased, leading to a decrease in demand for octanol and a decline in prices.

And this round of upward trend is no exception. Since December, DOTP and DOP have been operating at a medium to high level within the year, resulting in stable demand for octanol and sustained high consolidation of prices. Although the duration of high prices is not long, demand limits the decline of octanol. At present, although the DOTP market is mainly characterized by short-term cyclical transactions during the week, and most of the time still faces the problem of poor transactions, the cost side will still limit the profit margin of DOTP merchants. Cost demand game, expected short-term DOTP market price narrow range consolidation operation. In the later stage, with the expansion of losses and the accumulation of inventory, DOTP enterprises may experience a decrease in production, which may affect the demand for octanol.