Weak cost and demand in the polyvinyl alcohol market

1、 Price trend
The atmosphere of the domestic polyvinyl alcohol market continues to be light. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol was 12233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.54% compared to the beginning of this month (12300.00 yuan/ton). This month, the demand for polyvinyl alcohol in the market is mainly in demand, and the expected transaction in the polyvinyl alcohol market has weakened. Dealers are offering more discounts for shipments, and downstream purchasing intentions are cold.
Market quotation situation
As of May 30th, the market prices for polyvinyl alcohol 1799 are around 11000-13000 yuan/ton, PVA2699 is around 11500-12600 yuan/ton, PVA1788 is around 11500-13200 yuan/ton, PVA2488 powder is around 12500-14200 yuan/ton, and PVA 2099 powder is around 11200-13200 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of cost
Due to insufficient demand, the price of calcium carbide has been declining this month, resulting in an overall loss making situation in the industry. As of May 29th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide was 2833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.73% compared to the beginning of this month (2883.33 yuan/ton). Recently, the price of calcium carbide has remained stable and has not changed at the moment. It is reported that the operating rate of calcium carbide has rebounded, and the supporting calcium carbide has started to be exported. However, there has been an increase in PVC maintenance and a clear regional trend, resulting in unstable demand.
The acetic acid market has been weak and downward this month. The acetic acid plants on the market have maintained their initial load, and the inventory of manufacturers has increased. The intention of enterprises to discharge inventory is obvious, and the downstream side is resistant to high priced goods. The enthusiasm for entering the market to purchase goods is not high, and the main focus is on replenishing according to demand. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the mentality of manufacturers is bearish. In order to stimulate the purchase of acetic acid, the quotation has been lowered. As of May 29th, the benchmark price of acetic acid was 3100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.62% compared to the beginning of this month (3250.00 yuan/ton). At present, the market supply exceeds demand, and it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to operate weakly.
In terms of demand
In terms of consumer structure, polymerization additives, fabric slurries, and adhesives are the main downstream consumer markets for polyvinyl alcohol. According to data, in the consumption structure of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), polymerization additives account for about 38%, fabric slurries account for about 20%, adhesives account for about 12%, vinylon fibers account for about 11%, papermaking slurries and coatings account for about 8%, and building coatings account for about 5%.
Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) Industry Chain
In terms of exports
According to Chinese customs statistics, from January to April 2024, China exported a total of 69656.067 tons of polyvinyl alcohol, with an amount of 852510631 RMB, an increase of 11238.140 tons compared to the same period last year; The amount has decreased by 76010584 RMB. In April, the export volume of polyvinyl alcohol in China was 191.8368 million tons, with an average export price of 12818.86 yuan/ton.
Main export situation of polyvinyl alcohol in April 2024
Number of exporting countries (tons) and amount (US dollars)
India                  2093.206 3597388
Malaysia             1697.68 3102949
Korea                 1545.764 2648680
Brazil                 729.7 1207668
3、 Future Market Forecast
The atmosphere of the polyvinyl alcohol market continues to be light, with downstream users maintaining a strong demand for purchases. The mentality of the cargo holders is empty, and the focus of negotiations is on the low-end. There is currently no positive support for the polyvinyl alcohol market, and the polyvinyl alcohol market has continued to be weak and consolidating in recent times.