Analysis on market price trend of PVC paste resin in China from January to October

From January to October 2021, the overall price of PVC paste resin in China showed a "high low high low" trend, with obvious price fluctuation and obvious upward shift of price focus.

From January to October 2021, the overall price of PVC paste resin in China showed a "high low high low" trend, with obvious price fluctuation and obvious upward shift of price focus. The average price high point appeared at 20075 yuan / ton at the end of March, the average price low point appeared at 9150 yuan / ton in mid July, and the price difference between high and low points was up to 10925 yuan / ton. From January to October, the average price of PVC paste resin in China was 14935 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.27% over the average price in 2020, of which the average price of glove material from January to October was 17178 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.61% over the average price in 2020, and the average price of large-scale materials from January to October was 12692 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.60% over the average price in 2020. The factors affecting the price trend of PVC paste resin in China in 2021 mainly come from the changes of cost, supply and demand. In the following stages:

From January to March, the market price maintained a high consolidation: from January to March, the PVC paste resin market at the end of 2020 continued. Although the number of new orders received by some glove products enterprises decreased significantly in the first quarter, some glove products enterprises basically received orders in the first quarter of 2021 at the end of 2020 and mainly returned early orders, so the opponent's nesting support was still strong, and the PVC paste resin price continued to maintain a high consolidation, At the end of March, the average price was 20075 yuan / ton, becoming the high point of the year.

From April to mid July, the market price fell significantly: in April, some glove products enterprises received orders less, and even some small and medium-sized products enterprises "had no orders to receive", the demand for glove materials weakened, the glove material inventory of PVC paste resin enterprises gradually increased, and some micro suspension paste resin enterprises began to switch to production or full production of large-scale materials to alleviate the pressure of glove material inventory, but on the premise of no increase in the demand for large-scale materials, The increase in supply also has a negative impact on the large-scale material market. With the increase in the proportion of large-scale materials produced by micro suspension enterprises, there is also a situation of oversupply in the large-scale material market. The price of PVC paste resin gloves began to decline in early April, and the large-scale materials also fell rapidly in mid April, until the average price was 9150 yuan / ton in mid July, falling to the low point of the year, The inventory pressure of some enterprises has increased significantly.

From late July to early October, the price hit the bottom and rebounded: in mid and early July, the price of PVC paste resin fell to the low point of the year, while the price of raw calcium carbide continued to rise, and some PVC paste enterprises suffered serious losses. Under the dual pressure of cost and inventory, some enterprises began to reduce the load to alleviate their own pressure, and even some enterprises temporarily stopped work or overhauled in advance, At the end of July, the average operating load rate of China's PVC paste resin industry fell to about 35% of the lowest level in the year. In the face of the market situation of high cost and low start-up, some market participants believe that the price is basically at the bottom, and some terminals are willing to copy the bottom and prepare goods. Driven by the demand for phased goods preparation, the price of paste resin began to rebound since the end of July. As the price of calcium carbide keeps hitting a record high, the cost of paste resin continues to increase, and the tight supply of calcium carbide is difficult to ease. The price of PVC paste resin rises one after another from August to September, and the price increase suddenly enlarges in October. In addition to the support of high cost and tight supply of raw materials, the improvement of orders for hand-made products has also become one of the factors driving the rapid rise of prices, During the National Day holiday, the price and quantity of export orders received by some glove products enterprises increased slightly, the operation of some large and medium-sized glove products enterprises increased, and the demand for nesting increased significantly. As of mid to early October, the mainstream price of PVC paste resin in China was 17000-18000 yuan / ton.

In late October, the price fell significantly: in mid October, affected by the continuous deep decline of PVC futures, the market mentality of PVC paste resin changed, and affected by the continuous decline of PVC powder price, the price of raw calcium carbide began to loosen, and the negative impact on PVC paste resin gradually appeared. Some low-cost sources of goods shipped flexibly before the national day, and the market price went all the way down. By the end of October, the mainstream market price of PVC paste resin in China had fallen to 12500-16000 yuan / ton.