The supply of PVC paste resin increased slightly in the first quarter

Introduction

In the first quarter, the supply and demand side of PVC paste resin market changed from strong to weak, and the supply side gradually increased, but the demand side did not see an obvious turning point for improvement, and the situation of market supply exceeding demand was gradually obvious. In April, the market supply side may still maintain a high level. Although the demand side is expected to improve, the inflection point is not clear.

In the first quarter, the supply and demand side of PVC paste resin changed from strong to weak

From the perspective of supply and demand changes, the output of PVC paste resin increased significantly month on month in the first quarter, while the demand side showed general performance. The overall supply and demand changes of the market gradually showed a situation of supply exceeding demand.

Supply side: in the first quarter of 2022, the output of PVC paste resin was 255500 tons, an increase of 9.70% over the fourth quarter of 2021; The average operating load rate in the first quarter was 61.65%, up 7.02 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year. In the early stage, due to the tight supply of raw calcium carbide or other factors, the operating load of some enterprises was not high. In the first quarter, the operating load of some enterprises gradually increased, and the output of PVC paste resin industry increased month on month. In March, although some paste resin enterprises temporarily stopped work, the output remained at a high level.

Demand side: the overall demand side showed different performance in the first quarter. From the perspective of monthly demand changes, January was the eve of the Spring Festival holiday. Some terminals with large inventory started fairly well, and some terminals had demand for bargain hunting and stock preparation before the festival. Therefore, the market demand side showed a positive performance in the second half of January. Even in the first ten days of February after the Spring Festival holiday, some PVC paste resin enterprises still had orders to return. However, after the holiday, the actual market demand recovered in general, and some regional terminals resumed work one after another, but the weak order receiving of product orders led to the low operating load rate of some terminal products industries, such as toys, leather, coated cloth and other industries, the poor operating performance of PVC paste resin enterprises, the general shipping atmosphere, and the demand of glove products industry has not improved significantly. In March, the market demand performance is still difficult to be optimistic. The poor supply circulation in some regions leads to the slow arrival of raw materials. In addition, the orders of products in some terminal industries of large-scale materials have not improved, and the demand performance of large-scale materials is still weak; In mid March, I heard that the order receiving of some glove products industries improved slightly, and the demand for nesting of opponents improved slightly.

In April, there are still some uncertain factors in the market supply and demand.

Expected increase in PVC paste output in April

Few PVC paste enterprises planned to be overhauled in April, but in April, we still need to pay attention to the resumption time of some enterprises temporarily suspended in March, and some enterprises are expected to resume work in early April. Due to the shortage of PVC raw materials in the early period, some enterprises are still expected to increase the supply of raw materials at the end of April due to the shortage of PVC raw materials. It is expected that the operating load of PVC paste resin industry will increase in April, and the output will remain at a high level.

Demand may improve in April

At present, the operation of some terminals in the large market is generally performed, and the receipt of product orders is not good, but some market participants hope that there may be improvement expectations after mid April. However, in April, we still need to pay attention to the circulation of goods in some regions. If the transportation improves, there may be some expectation of improvement on the demand side, but there is still uncertainty at the improvement node.

To sum up, April is still mixed with long and short, and the market supply may remain at a high level. Although there is an expectation of improvement in demand, we still need to pay attention to the nodes where the demand improvement occurs. It is expected that there may be weak expectation in the supply side in April, but it may be better than that in March.