Brief analysis of China's DOP market in 2022

1、 Overview

DOP, namely dioctyl phthalate, is an organic ester compound and a commonly used plasticizer. It is mainly used for the processing of PVC resin, chemical fiber resin, acetic acid resin, ABS resin, rubber and other polymers, and also for paint, dye, dispersant, etc. According to different uses, DOP can be divided into general DOP, electrical DOP, food DOP and medical DOP.

2、 Industrial chain

Dioctyl phthalate (DOP), an organic ester compound, is a common plasticizer. The main reaction in the production of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) is esterification, that is, phthalic anhydride and octanol generate dioctyl phthalate and water under the conditions of catalyst and heating. Dioctyl phthalate is an important universal plasticizer, which is mainly used for the processing of PVC resin, chemical fiber resin, acetic acid resin, ABS resin, rubber and other polymers, as well as paint, dye, dispersant, etc.

1. Upstream end analysis

Isooctanol is one of the most important raw materials for DOP, and its price trend greatly affects the development of the industry. In 2021, due to the hot propylene market, the price of isooctanol continued to rise, and then began to fall. By July 2022, the price of isooctanol fell back to 8231 yuan/ton.

2. Downstream end analysis

PVC products are the largest demand area of DOP. With the steady development of China's economy in recent years, the production capacity of China's PVC industry has also increased. According to the data, the production capacity of China's PVC industry will reach 27.13 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.

3、 Industry status

1. Production

As an important universal plasticizer, DOP has developed rapidly with the development of China's economy in recent years. In terms of output, the overall DOP output has been in a fluctuating trend in recent years. Since 2019, due to the rise of raw material prices and the strong support of the state for environmental protection plasticizers, China's DOP output has been declining. According to data, China's DOP output in 2021 will be 1.288 million tons, down 6.5% year on year.

2. Price

From the perspective of price, during the first half of 2021, due to the rise of raw material prices, DOP prices also continued to rise, once exceeding 15000 yuan/ton. Then, with the fall of raw material prices and the weakening of demand, DOP prices began to continue to decline. By July 2022, DOP prices fell to 8974 yuan/ton.

3. Consumption

The main consumption areas of DOP in China are PVC artificial leather, cable material, shrinkage film and calendering film, PVC floor wallpaper and pipes. Among them, the application proportion of PVC film and PVC leather is relatively high. With the increasing demand for low-carbon environmental protection, the market is gradually developing towards the ecological direction of cleaner production. The demand for traditional PVC products is gradually squeezed, and the corresponding amount of DOP plasticizer is also impacted, and the demand shows a downward trend. According to data, China's DOP demand in 2021 will be 1.293 million tons, down 6.1% year on year.

4. Import

From the perspective of imports, China's DOP is mainly imported. In recent years, with the strong support of the state for environment-friendly plasticizers, China's DOP imports have shown a downward trend, from 187500 tons in 2015 to 15900 tons in 2020. In 2021, the import volume has increased slightly to 38100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 139.6%, and the import amount is 67 million dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 346.7%. From the perspective of import distribution, Taiwan, China, China is the most important source of DOP in China. In 2021, the import amount will account for 68.5%, followed by South Korea and Malaysia, accounting for 16.2% and 11.5% respectively.

In 2021, China's import dependence of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) will increase. In 2021, China's import of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) was 38143.17 tons, up 140.6% year on year; The import value was US $67143700, up 336.8% year on year.

5. Exports

From the perspective of the export of dioctyl phthalate (DOP), in 2021, China's export volume of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) was 329.936 million tons, an increase of 106.5% year on year; The export value was US $56.9793 million, with a year-on-year increase of 242.4%. In 2021, China's DOP (29173200) will be exported to Vietnam, Egypt and Indonesia, with the export volume of 4686.21 tons, 3765.20 tons and 3614.00 tons, and the export value of 7754200 dollars, 6619500 dollars and 5786900 dollars respectively. In addition, Taiwan, China, Australia, North Korea, Malaysia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico and Bangladesh rank in the top ten.

6. Apparent consumption

DOP is mainly used for the production of PVC plastic soft products. The main consumption areas are PVC film, PVC artificial leather, plastic shoes, wires and cables, etc., accounting for almost 80% of DOP consumption. In recent years, China's apparent consumption of DOP has shown a downward trend. In 2021, China's apparent consumption of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) was 1.2932 million tons, down 6.1% year on year.

5. Price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP)

In 2012, the price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) in China reached 12978 yuan/ton, showing a rapid decline for three consecutive years since 2013, and rising and falling for two consecutive years in 2016-2020. In 2020, the price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) in China returned to the era of ten thousand yuan, reaching 10339 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 40%. In 2021, the price dropped slightly, reaching 9801 yuan/ton.

From January to July 2022, the price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) in China showed an inverted "V" trend, rising first and then falling. In July 2022, the price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) was 8791 yuan/ton; The year-on-year growth rate was - 43.77%, which was 35.959% lower than the average.

From the perspective of the average import and export price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) (29173200), the average import and export price of China's dioctyl phthalate (DOP) (29173200) in 2021 increased compared with the average annual price of 2020, with the average import price of 1760.31 US dollars/ton, up 790.73 US dollars/ton compared with 2020; The average export price is 1727.15 US dollars/ton, up 685.30 US dollars/ton from 2020.

5、 Development trend

Traditional phthalate plasticizers are the most widely used plasticizers at home and abroad, accounting for 85% of the market. Because of its low cost, superior performance and mature technology, it is widely used in packaging materials, cosmetics, medical devices and other fields. Since the carcinogenicity study of dioctyl phthalate by the authoritative National Cancer Research Institute of the United States in 1982, the toxicity of phthalate plasticizers has received widespread attention from all walks of life. In addition to its own toxicity, o-benzene plasticizers have the risk of migration in the process of use, further increasing the harm to the environment and health. At present, countries around the world have formulated strict standards and regulations for products containing phthalate plasticizers. With the increasing awareness of environmental protection and the demand for multi-functional plastics, the research and development of new environment-friendly plasticizers has become the development trend of the plasticizer industry. All environment-friendly plasticizers have their advantages and disadvantages, and there are problems in the production process, such as immature technology, high cost, low efficiency, and many by-products. Therefore, environment-friendly plasticizers need further research and performance improvement.