Domestic PVC enters the off-season of demand, and overseas orders have not yet made significant progress

【 Introduction 】 The overall prices in the Asian market are stable, with a slight drop in China and overall demand remaining sluggish. Recently, domestic prices in India have risen, with a port price of 810 US dollars per CFR India. Starting from December 3rd, during the week, FOB China prices continued to decline due to suppliers accelerating exports amidst sluggish domestic demand. Affected by the decline in the Chinese market, the PVC market in Asia will continue to be bearish.

Social inventory continues to increase

As of now, the domestic PVC social inventory is 439000 tons, an increase of 0.48% month on month and 71.55% year-on-year; Among them, the East China region accounted for 398000 tons, an increase of 1.50% month on month and 93.30% year-on-year; In the South China region, it was 4.10 tons, a decrease of 8.48% month on month and 18.00% year-on-year.

The production of products is gradually decreasing

Downstream construction continues to decline. The demand in the north has decreased significantly, especially in the area of hard products. From the perspective of domestic PVC profile enterprises, the production of profile enterprises continued to show north-south differentiation during the week, and the burden gradually expanded outward. Northern product enterprises are gradually reducing their load during winter, while southern enterprises are maintaining normal production. The current domestic demand relies solely on the low price replenishment of southern rigid demand and winter storage, resulting in a clear off-season pattern of overall demand.

Weak and stable prices of calcium carbide

The domestic calcium carbide market is operating steadily, with the mainstream ex factory trade price in the Wuhai region at 2800 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have flexible transactions, overall inventory is low, and regional performance is obvious. The price of raw material white ash has slightly decreased, while the price of blue charcoal remains stable and wait-and-see after the decrease. Recently, logistics costs have increased, and transportation congestion has exacerbated the shortage of downstream arrivals. At present, the overall market is in a tight equilibrium state, with regional shortages of goods in the downstream. However, PVC prices continue to be low, and under cost pressure, resistance to the rise of calcium carbide has increased. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will remain stagnant next week.

Overall, the fundamentals of PVC in China continue to be under pressure in the later stage, with a significant decrease in the overall maintenance scale in December compared to the previous month. The market supply pressure is significant, coupled with the off-season of domestic trade demand, and the bottom of the market is closely supported by exports and costs; Currently, exports rely heavily on low prices for external competition, and the overall supply of goods in the international market is abundant; From a cost perspective, the PVC market continues to perform strongly, with overall consolidation in the short term.

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