PVC paste resin prices continue to decline after the National Day holiday

Starting from the second half of the year, the price of PVC paste resin has increased. Firstly, Xinjiang Tianye has shut down for maintenance. In addition, companies such as Shenyang Chemical and Shandong Langhui have successively shut down for maintenance, reducing the supply pressure on the market. The initial inventory has been gradually digested. In August, Ningbo Formosa Plastics began to shut down for maintenance. In addition, Corning Chemical has temporarily not resumed production, which has led to an increase in demand for P440/P450/1069 in the market, especially the soaring price of 1069. Overhaul enterprises are also increasing, with the start of construction falling to 32.61% of the year's low point. The situation of hard to find goods is highlighted. The price has soared all the way, and the ex factory price finally broke through the 8000 yuan/ton mark. At the beginning of September, the price of enterprises producing seed lotion in the west continued to rise, and the ex factory price exceeded 8500 yuan/ton. The pre-sale volume of manufacturers is large. Shenyang Chemical and other enterprises have changed from positive inventory to negative inventory. The downstream glove factories have a good enthusiasm for stocking goods in August and September, Starting from August, the glove factory started operating with a slight increase in orders, and downstream leather factories saw a slight improvement in demand. However, compared to last year, the order volume was average.

Starting from October, the price of PVC paste resin has dropped from a high level, and there are fewer maintenance companies in the fourth quarter. In addition, demand has not significantly improved. Traders have made more short orders, and prices have continued to decline. Terminals claim that there are fewer orders now, which is not as good as the market during the epidemic period. On the contrary, glove materials have received more orders during the price increase from August to September, but the price of exported gloves has not improved. In October to 11 US dollars per box, glove companies can start construction in November to December, Mainly focus on completing preliminary orders.

The impact of starting construction on prices is mainly manifested in low starting prices and high starting prices, while high starting prices and low starting prices. There is a consistent relationship between production and construction trends, with high production and low prices, while low production and low prices lead to high prices. The traditional maintenance time is concentrated in April May and August September. The frequency of maintenance in 2023 is relatively low compared to previous years, and there are fewer maintenance in the first half of the year. This year, it is concentrated in late June to early September, and the start of construction is relatively low. After October 2023, there were relatively few maintenance enterprises, with Jining Bank of China stopping for maintenance, and other enterprises producing at full capacity. The start of construction began to rise. This week, Tangshan Sanyou stopped for maintenance, and the start of construction decreased, but the boost was limited.

2022-2023 belongs to the post epidemic era, with PVC glove production lines starting to shrink and small glove factories shutting down. The current market demand has not changed much compared to before the epidemic, and the market is showing an overcapacity situation. Construction has significantly decreased compared to last year, with 600 to 700 glove production lines currently operating nationwide.

Overall, the recent positive news has been limited, and the market lacks momentum for price increases. The downward channel has opened, coupled with a short terminal stocking cycle and no substantial improvement in demand, it is expected that prices will be prone to decline but difficult to rise.

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